COP28—how did Africa do in Dubai?

Climate change is the single greatest challenge facing humanity and the single biggest threat to all life on Earth, demanding urgent and concerted action from all nations to lower emissions and reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere – African Union

There appears to be general consensus that Africa left COP28 with its head held high and with some promises to the tune of billions of dollars for critical investments in infrastructure. (Africa is the continent that suffers the most from the effects of climate change but receives the least climate finance.) Moreover, the continent displayed unity in its purpose, from governments to civil society. Prior to the Dubai conference, Africa’s positions and expectations had been shaped at the African Climate Summit in Nairobi, Kenya by the adoption of the Nairobi Declaration. This momentum was solidified in the announcement at the UAE gathering of the Kenyan President’s Africa Green Industrialisation Initiative, which is set to unlock businesses worth trillions of US dollars in agriculture, the blue economy and climate-smart technologies.

Devil is in the detail
Gori Olusina Daniel, Senior Infrastructure Finance Specialist and Managing Partner at Africa PPP Advisory Services (AP3) shared his views about the main takeaways of COP28: “I think first and foremost it is this idea of a transition away from fossil fuels. My reflection on this is it really just accurately captures where the industry is now. I think there’s a recognition that the science is clear; the idea is to transition to more renewable, lower carbon energy. And this is something that, across the African continent, I think there’s an alignment as to the need to explore greener, net zero carbon pathways in terms of delivery. And I think that’s a positive.”

He continues: “Another thing for the African continent was the idea of the funding of the Loss and Damage Fund which was first announced in COP27. So that’s been operationalised. About $85 billion worth of commitments and a significant part of that for adaptation projects is also one of the key things that came out of COP28.

So, a lot of really positive things that came out of it. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The key thing now is for governments, private sector investors and development finance partners to actually start doing the hard work of ensuring that these commitments come to life and lower and middle income countries are able to access this funding for critical investments in infrastructure.”

Significant step forward
Teboho Makhabane, Head of ESG and Impact at Sanlam Investments, describes as “historic” the announcement regarding the Loss and Damage Fund. She adds: “The question is who should compensate the loss and damage experienced by developing countries—should it be wealthy nations whose greenhouse gas emissions are far larger than any other developing country? New developments around this proposal were that the World Bank had to agree on conditionalities that developing countries have put forward. The agreement reached signifies a significant step forward in addressing the financial support required for countries dealing with the impacts of climate change-related losses and damages. While specific details are not clear, the decision could have far-reaching implications for climate justice and international climate cooperation.” [Read the full op-ed here.]

Everybody is on this journey
Asked what he thought of the controversial “no science” remark by COP28 president Ahmed Al Jaber, AP3’s Gori Olusina Daniel responds: “Yes, it was a controversial statement, but I think it shouldn’t be lost on us that UAE as an oil-producing country hosted COP 28 and that is significant in and of itself. What is also significant is that for the first time in 30 years, the agreements coming out of the Conference of Parties had wording to signify a clear transition away from fossil fuels. And I think what makes that credible is essentially where it was hosted and the fact that it was announced by the chief executive of the state oil company.”

He states: “Whether things were said or how they were said may well be an indication of the fact that there’s a journey that everybody’s having to go through to come to the reality that irrespective of personal, private positions, interests, what is right for our shared prosperity as one humanity is for this transitioning away from possible fuels in a way that is aligned with the available technologies that allow the transition to be just and equitable. And this also has to do with the cost and the access to these technologies that low and middle income countries need to be able to ensure that their industrialisation and development are not compromised of this very, very important transition that the world seems to have started on with no return.” [Read full interview here.]

COP-out?
While the agreement at COP28 to “transition away” from fossil fuels has been universally lauded and the Loss and Damage Fund welcomed, there is still criticism from certain quarters, particularly from certain civil society and climate action groups. Under the cleverly-worded heading of “COP(28) out on climate action and fossil fuels?” ESI Africa quotes several organisations’ frustrations on what they deem to be a “litany of loopholes,” “worrying downsides,” “a grossly inadequate outcome” and “that the road to a fossil fuel free world was full of potholes.”

“I think everyone is on a journey, some faster than others,” concludes AP3’s Gori Olusina Daniel. “But I think the key important thing here is, we are on a path of no return. And that’s a positive thing, and I think that’s worth celebrating.”

This article first appeared in the Green Economy Express , issued by Africa’s Green Economy Summit.