Eskom has provided its energy outlook for the summer period – 1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025 – forecasting no loadshedding.

The power utility also provided an update on its current business operations following five months (152 consecutive days) without loadshedding, including the entire winter season.

“The Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which started in March 2023, continues to enhance efficiencies for Eskom and deliver a structural shift in fleet performance,” said Eskom.

“Based on the improved generation performance, the base case scenario indicates that there will be no loadshedding if unplanned outages stay at 13,000MW or below.”

Key performance highlights that drove the Eskom summer outlook

1. A winter without loadshedding: There was no loadshedding during the 2024 winter period, compared to 153 days of loadshedding in the 2023 winter season.
2. Positive impact on economic outlook and profitability: Potential ~2% growth for the South African economy and improved financial performance for Eskom in financial year 2025 (1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025)
3. Reduced Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): UCLF averaged at 12,400MW in 2024 winter, reaching a 12-month low of 11,300MW in July 2024. This marks a 20% improvement and is 3,100MW better than the 15,500MW likely scenario in the 2024 Winter Outlook.
4. Enhanced reliability through increased planned maintenance: Eskom surpassed its planned maintenance target of 3,677MW, achieving an average of 4,799MW during winter 2024.
5. Sustained increase in Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The EAF rose from 57% in April 2024 to 67.02% by the end of July 2024 – an improvement of 10.02%.
6. Reduced reliance on Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) and diesel cost savings: Decreased dependence on OCGTs resulted in a 74% reduction in diesel costs, saving over R10 billion compared to the same period last year.

“Consequently, this year’s Summer Outlook base case has been revised downwards by 1,500MW from the previous (2023/24) Summer Outlook,” said Eskom.

“For a scenario where unplanned outages rise to 14,000MW, Stage 1 loadshedding could be implemented.

“The unlikely scenario of unplanned outages at 15,000MW will at worst result in Stage 2 loadshedding.

“The trend in the performance of the fleet has reduced both the base case unplanned capacity assumption, and the possible intensity in the event that loadshedding is needed.”

Eskom to add generation capacity to the grid

Eskom said it is noteworthy that the 2023/24 Summer Outlook was based on unplanned outages ranging between 14,500MW and 17,000MW, which necessitated the implementation of Stage 7 loadshedding as a worst-case scenario – a scenario that was successfully avoided.

The utility is also aiming to add approximately 2,500MW of generation capacity by January 2025 “through meticulous implementation of recovery plans.”

Units to return to service:

• Koeberg Nuclear Power Station Unit 2 is expected to return to service from a long-term outage in December 2024, bringing 930MW to the grid.
• Kusile Unit 6 will be synchronised for the first time into the grid in December 2024, adding 800MW of capacity.
• The return of Medupi Unit 4 from an extended outage will add another 800MW before the financial year-end.

When it presented the outlook at a press conference on Monday (26 August) Eskom credited the turnaround, in part, to improved staff morale.

“Staff turnover has decreased to 1.5%, while the employee morale index has risen from 3.6 to 3.9. The company is building a strong talent pipeline with 2,000 learners, 80% of whom are in technical roles such as artisans, engineers, operators and technicians.”

“As Eskom enters a competitive electricity market, it has not only delivered a winter free of loadshedding, but it has done so by being efficient and saving over R10 billion in diesel spend that will be a strong driver to a possible return to profit in our current financial year (FY25).

“This outcome has led to predictions suggesting ongoing performance can contribute to potential growth in the economy of around 2%,” said Dan Marokane, Eskom Group Chief Executive.

Eskom Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo, said the visible, structural shift in the generation fleet performance “demonstrates the quality of work Eskom’s teams, supported by our stakeholders, have delivered to strengthen the infrastructure of this country, and ensure that what is fixed stays fixed, cost effectively.”

“By returning more capacity to the grid we have not only suspended loadshedding, but we have also created a buffer so when we experience delays in returning further units to the fleet, the impacts that are experienced are much less severe and we will continue to focus on increasing the generation capacity of the fleet,” said Nxumalo.

FAQs about grid capacity in South Africa

Is the grid capacity the same as the generational capacity?

Generation capacity is how much electricity the power stations can generate. Grid capacity is how much power the system can reliably deliver.

What are Eskom’s interim grid capacity allocation rules?

The grid capacity allocation rules are designed to reflect the principles of non-discriminatory and open access to the grid in South Africa.

Where do load curtailment and loadshedding interplay with the grid?

Load curtailment is a practice that Eskom uses wherein large power users are directly asked to reduce their power usage. Loadshedding is the rotational outage of electricity supply.

Who is in charge of the grid in South Africa?

Once the Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill is enacted, the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) will own and operate the country’s national transmission system, the System Operator, the grid strengthening function, energy market services and the International Trader. Currently, distribution grids mostly fall under either Eskom or local municipalities.