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Renewables power capacity to double by 2030, globally

Global renewable power capacity is expected to double between now and 2030, increasing by 4,600GW, about the same as adding China, the EU and Japan’s power generation capacity combined to the global energy mix.

Solar PV accounts for almost 80% of that global increase, says the IEA in their Renewables 2025 report.

While renewable power capacity is set to grow faster over the next five years than it did over the last five years in more than 80% of the world’s countries, challenges such as grid integration, supply chain vulnerabilities and financing are also increasing.

Despite the positive outlook, the forecast for growth in global renewable power capacity is actually revised slightly down, mainly because of policy changes in the US and China. The numbers are actually 5% lower than the 2024 figures, reflecting regulatory and market changes since October 2024.

“Nonetheless, China continues to account for nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach its recently announced 2035 wind and solar target five years ahead of schedule, extending its track record of early delivery,” says the IEA.

The outlook for renewables in most emerging and developing economies is more positive this year than last year’s forecast. The Middle East and North Africa forecast has been revised up by 25% – the biggest regional upgrade – because of rapid solar PV growth in Saudi Arabia.

In Sub-Saharan Africa and the ASEAN region (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), major new solar PV and wind projects are expected to become operational in 2025, significantly boosting renewable capacity additions in both regions.

Where does solar fit into the global renewables mix?

Solar PV capacity is forecast to more than doubled between now and 2030 thanks to:

• Low costs,
• Faster permitting, and
• Broader social acceptance.

Distributed solar PV applications (residential, commercial & industrial and off-grid projects) account for 42% of the overall PV expansion.

Higher retail electricity prices following the energy crisis, along with strong policy support, have encouraged many individuals and businesses to install solar PV systems with the aim of reducing their electricity bills.

What did last year’s report say? Renewables to power half of global electricity by 2030

“The use of distributed solar PV applications with storage units is also growing in countries that have an unreliable electricity grid. In South Africa and Pakistan, for instance, uptake in commercial and large-scale off-grid solar PV systems is rising rapidly, improving electricity access.”

Wind power on the other hand is facing supply chain issues, rising costs and permitting delays. But, global wind capacity is still expected to nearly double to more than 2,000GW by 2030 as China and the EU address the challenges.

Flexibility for power systems from renewables

Hydropower should account for around 3% of new renewable power additions over the next five years. “The faster growth of pumped storage plants between 2025-30 leads to a much greater increase in hydropower compared with the previous five years.”

The IEA forecasts that annual capacity additions of hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal, CSP and ocean energy are expected to range from 25GW to 41GW over the forecast period.

“These renewable technologies are dispatchable and, along with batteries, they can provide the flexibility power systems need as variable renewable energy shares increase rapidly.”

“Hydropower additions are highly volatile as commissioning deadlines are reached for large projects in emerging markets and developing countries. These plants contribute 21-35GW annually over 2025- 2030, with almost 90% of the growth in emerging and developing economies – mainly in China, Africa and Asia, with a smaller amount in Latin America.”

It’s still not enough to meet promises made

While global renewable power capacity is expected to reach 2.6 times its 2022 level, by 2030, this will still fall short of the COP28 tripling pledge.

“In the United Arab Emirates in November 2023, nearly 200 countries agreed on the goal of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. This target can still be brought within reach if countries adopt enhanced policies to bridge gaps in both ambition and implementation.

“The accelerated case in this report sees global renewable capacity reaching 2.8 times its 2022 level by 2030 if countries minimise policy uncertainties, reduce permitting timelines, increase investment in grid infrastructure, expand flexibility to facilitate integration of variable renewables, and de-risk financing,” says the IEA.

Manufacturers are struggling, but appetite is strong

While wind and solar manufacturers are struggling financially, appetite for electricity from renewables remains strong. Major solar PV and Wind manufacturers have reported large losses despite surging global installations.

In China, solar PV prices are down more than 60% since 2023 because of a supply glut of modules and competition for market share. “This has reduced the margins of the largest manufacturers to -10% with cumulative losses reaching almost $5 billion since the beginning of 2024.”

Wind manufacturers outside China continue to struggle financially, reporting cumulative losses of around $1.2 billion in 2024.

Despite challenges, renewable developers have either increased or maintained their capacity deployment targets for 2030 since last year. At the same time the offshore wind industry faces multiple challenges, with forecast growth over the next five years revised down by more than 25%.

Find out more: Renewables 2025 report