Based on the choice of energy technology, there are several paths to net-zero says Kay Walsh, Founder and Managing Director of Nova Economics. During her presentation at Enlit Africa, she detailed the factors to consider when assessing countries’ capabilities to pursue a successful energy transition.

In order for net zero to become a reality, global renewable energy additions must amount to 1,000GW, encouraging a threefold increase in renewable energy. Simultaneously, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a 95% reduction in both abated and unabated fossil fuels.

“This is not going to be easy to achieve,” said Walsh.

Though other European countries (such as Denmark, which generates 57% of its power from wind energy) have successfully curated an energy mix that is predominantly renewable energy, these countries still rely heavily on fossil fuels, either for baseload power, their transport industry or their economic development through exports.

Which countries are well-positioned to make an energy transition?

In order to assess whether African countries are well-positioned to pursue a sustainable clean energy transition, there are several factors to consider:

• Electricity access rate
• Proportion of energy consumption
• Dependence on fossil fuels in the energy mix
• Electricity tariffs
• Energy policy and regulation
• Economic viability of renewable energy
• Access to base load energy (gas, nuclear, batteries)
• Grid infrastructure
• Ability to import

With these factors in mind, the country deemed most poised for a relatively easy energy transition, based on its high electricity access and low dependency on oil and coal, is Kenya, which holds a 77% electricity access rate and a 20.6% dependence on fossil fuels. Next in line to have a relatively smooth transition are Ghana, Tunisia and Egypt.

At the bottom of the pyramid and poised to have a relatively difficult energy transition is South Sudan, with an 8% electricity access rate and a 74.9% dependence on fossil fuels. South Sudan is surpassed by Angola, Benin and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are also expected to have a difficult transition.

What needs to be done for a smoother energy transition?

During the panel discussion, industry experts compared notes on what they consider to be important considerations, policies and regulations to smoothen the transition for all African countries.

The vital need for integrated and strengthened power pools was top of mind for Abel Tella, Director General of APUA (Association of Power Utilities of Africa), and Sabine Dall’Omo, Chief Executive Officer for Sub-Saharan Africa at Siemens.

Suppose regional power pools work to strengthen their individual grids, leveraging their vast renewable energy potential, baseload power through nuclear and gas, and grid-stabilising technologies.

In that case, Africa can be interdependent, trade power between countries, overcome the challenges presented by intermittent renewable energy sources and avoid energy deficits or surpluses.

Governments need to invest in the private sector for this to benefit all parties involved, says Brian Mainza Sinkala, Principal Energy Officer at the Ministry of Energy for Zambia.

Private-public partnerships are very important in the deployment of renewable energy, says Sinkala. They accommodate for more developed best practices, the integration of the latest modern technology, and more efficient infrastructure build-out.

Policy will be pivotal to the energy transition

Sinkala suggested that the government incentivise the private sector to get involved through financing as a source of risk mitigation, saying that “sovereign guarantees have not worked”.

However, policy will be critical for all these processes to run smoothly.

Policies can allow governments to implement the relevant tax systems that incentivise low-income groups to deploy renewable energy solutions and possibly implement a framework that allows customers to sell excess power back into the grid.

Tau also spoke about the implementation of cost-reflective tariffs, saying that they are crucial to maintain the financial sustainability of municipalities.

“Local government has a constitutional responsibility to ensure the distribution of electricity and therefore plays a pivotal role in the energy transition,” Tau said. ESI