Working on the assumption that the new generation plants will come online and that servitude acquisitions are resolved and budgets made available, the transmission grid would need to be augmented by about 14,200km of extra-high-voltage lines and 170 transformers in that time.
Current (and future) bid windows of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme are stymied by a lack of grid access. So, what is the country doing to get around the congestion issue?
A new RES4Africa study into grid planning was discussed at a conference in Cape Town, addressing the problems that need solving to keep the lights on in South Africa.
Ronald Marais, Eskom Grid Planning Manager, says the problem of grid congestion is taking place worldwide. “It is not unique to South Africa.
“In order to overcome this, there is a lot of collaboration and partnership that is necessary,” said Marais.
While the Western Cape and Eastern Cape grids are congested to the point of all possible connection points being spoken for, “the interest that is still valid in those areas far outweighs the interest elsewhere.”
According to Eskom’s figures, around 18,000MW of interest has been expressed in the Western Cape alone, but the province currently has a “negative grid availability”.
Marais says the high-quality resources in the area are driving a need for the “significant grid strengthening that is coming.”
Already, valid cost estimate letters issued by Eskom show that there is pressure across the grid. Marais points to the next space to become severely congested as Mpumalanga, now that the promotion of grid integration in the area has sparked a significant increase in interest. He thinks the next problem to overcome will be “constraint in getting servitude to expand the network.”
80% of the demand load comes from the north, but 52% of the actual generation increase is expected to come from the south of the country.
RES4Africa’s study on the Integration of Non-Programmable Renewable Energy in the National Electric System of South Africa shows that 80% of the demand load comes from the north, but 52% of the actual generation increase is expected to come from the south of the country.
The study analysed the difference between installing renewable energy plants in the northeast part of the country around Mpumalanga versus the current preference for the North, Western and Eastern Cape. This was to establish the optimal trade-off between plants far from load centres requiring grid investment, extension and reinforcement versus putting them close to existing grid access points.
It was found that surface area requirements for wind projects made it impossible to locate the necessary amount required only around Mpumalanga. So, the load centres present in the southwest of the country would need significant reinforcement.
Marais reminded that it was also important to understand how renewable energy profiles would impact how and when the grid becomes congested.
Marais said that embracing different mechanisms with different value propositions to create a diverse energy mix will be very important for planning. He mentioned measures such as curtailment and incentivising different timings for load demand as important measures not to be ignored.
Speaking on a panel discussion on managing complexity to extract value from a competitive market Segomoco Scheppers Head of Transmission at Eskom, said their “work in terms of demand response and solar PV has been well coordinated” thus far. He foresees that the utility will have to become much more sophisticated about how it forecasts the effect of weather patterns on load demand with the upscaling of rooftop solar use by the C&I market.
Scheppers said lifting the 100MW threshold for licencing self-generation has created disappointment with the current grid planning programme’s performance. “So, there’s lots of focus now on the rules and criteria around queueing. We need to look at the overall process,” said Scheppers.
He said Eskom wants to more closely define the concept of a “shovel-ready project” so projects which do ask for a cost estimate letter will be able to start constructing their plants as soon as all necessary permitting and authorisation is received.
“There is more discussion that needs to happen so we can move with a bit more confidence,” said Scheppers. “Ideally, the grid should be there before the power plants, because we need a much longer lead time. A solar plant can take 10 to 30 months, but a power line takes years [to build].”
The Integration of Non-Programmable Renewable Energy in the National Electricity System of South Africareport is available on the RES4Africa website.
A more indepth analysis of the report will be published in the next issue of ESI Africa magazine, which launches at Enlit Africa (16-18 May at the CTICC).
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