The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, says the electrification rate in the continent is projected to reach almost 70% by 2030 in the Stated Energy Policies Scenario (STEPS), up from 59% today.
Energy security is again a major theme of the IEA’s annual Outlook.
Released today (16 October), the report says that with electricity consumption in Africa set to rise sharply, financing for new sources of generation and grids will be crucial.
The IEA notes that around 80% of new generation capacity through to 2030 is projected to be renewables in both the STEPS and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), mostly from solar PV, geothermal and hydropower.
A positive trajectory has also resumed for access to clean cooking solutions: new policy commitments and new investment – including those announced at the IEA Summit for Clean Cooking in Africa in May 2024 – have improved the outlook.
“For the first time, the number of people without access to clean cooking is projected to plateau by 2030 in the STEPS,” says the report.
Africa’s economy is expected to expand by an average of 4% per year to 2030, and its population to expand by more than a billion people by 2050.
Both factors will require a major expansion in the energy system in Africa as the demand for electricity increases.
The report says renewable energy is growing fast, albeit from a low base: clean energy investment rose by 16% in 2023, “but this is concentrated in a handful of countries that have favourable policy environments and lower perceived risks.”
The report forecasts that coal demand in Africa will decline by 16% to 2030 in the STEPS.
It says that upgrades to coal plants have extended the lifespan of some facilities, reduced widespread power outages and played a crucial role in supporting the integration of variable renewables into the grid.
“At the same time, the rapid expansion of rooftop solar PV is significantly driving down coal use. Natural gas demand in Africa rises by 12%, driven by increasing use in the power sector, desalination projects in North Africa and in industry in sub-Saharan Africa.”
The report projects that demand for oil products in Africa will rise by 13% to 2030, largely due to a 20% increase in transport demand and the increased use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking.
Subsidy reforms in countries such as Nigeria and Ghana will prevent the rise in demand from being even larger.
“Increasing demand for oil in Africa is the main driver for increased energy-related CO2 emissions in the STEPS.
“In the APS, the level of transport demand growth projected in the STEPS is moderated by import restrictions on inefficient vehicles, measures to displace diesel backup, and an increase in electric two/three-wheelers, yet oil demand still rises by 16%.”
The report says that although new oil prospects and production are coming online, for example in Namibia, continent-wide oil production is expected to decline as a result of low investment in existing basins.
Conversely, natural gas production is set to climb by 8.5% to 2030, with gas production in North Africa remaining broadly at its current level and production in sub-Saharan Africa increasing by two-thirds.
“Refining capacity remains limited, relative to projected demand, and the continent is set to continue to be a significant net importer of refined products, despite the startup of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and other planned projects.”
Globally, geopolitical tensions are highlighting key fragilities in today’s global energy system.
The report says this is reinforcing the need for a faster expansion of clean energy worldwide.
“Escalating conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s continued war in Ukraine have global attention sharply focused on some of the world’s most important energy-producing regions,” the report notes.
The IEA says that while some of the acute impacts of the global energy crisis have receded, geopolitical uncertainty is exposing the underlying fragilities of the global energy system, regardless of technology or geography.
“Energy infrastructure is also facing increasing risks from extreme weather events that are becoming an all too common aspect of life for people around the world.”
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that after the “age of coal and age of oil, the world is moving rapidly into the age of electricity.”
He said electricity has recently grown twice as fast as total energy demand.
“But from now to 2035, it’s set to grow six times as fast…”
Birol said that in the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample – or even surplus – supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, “would move us into a very different energy world from the one we have experienced in recent years during the global energy crisis.”
“It implies downward pressure on prices, providing some relief for consumers that have been hit hard by price spikes.
“The breathing space from fuel price pressures can provide policymakers with room to focus on stepping up investments in clean energy transitions and removing inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
“This means government policies and consumer choices will have huge consequences for the future of the energy sector and for tackling climate change.”
Access the World Energy Outlook, by the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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