The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Electricity 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2027 report released today (14 February) said that despite this increase in demand, electricity consumption growth is hampered, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, due to lack of supply.
In terms of Africa, the report focuses on the electricity sectors of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco, Senegal, Algeria and Kenya.
It pointed out that South Africa bounced back from a contraction in demand in 2023 to growth of 4.1% as new capacity was brought online and the power sector limited loadshedding.
Egypt saw an increase in the yearly rate of demand growth to 1.6% and Algeria continued the trend of strong growth of recent years with a rise of 5.4%.
Combined these three countries consume more than half of all electricity in Africa.
The IEA report said that natural gas-fired generation in 2024 saw an increase of 2.2% and renewable generation of about 5.5% to meet the higher demand for electricity.
“Traditionally, hydropower had the biggest share of renewable generation at over 80% in 2018, but its share has declined to just over 70% in 2024, as solar PV and wind increased.
“Wind power generation rose by approximately 4.5% and output from solar PV grew by a substantial 46% in 2024. This rapid growth in solar PV is expected to continue in 2025-2027, at an average annual growth rate of over 25%.”
The expansion of renewable power generation will be important to meet the electricity demand over the outlook period, the report said.
“Globally electricity consumption is expected to increase at the fastest pace in years over the 2025-2027 forecast period”
The report said that the struggling power sector is showing first signs of recovery as capacity comes online amid increasing demand.
“After several years of contractions, electricity demand bounced back, with growth of 4.1% y-o-y in 2024.”
This reverses the trend that started in 2018, when the current energy crisis began, which saw demand reductions in all years except a post-COVID-19 bounce in 2021.
The report said South Africa is still struggling with power generation shortages, straining the electricity sector.
“However, loadshedding has been limited since March 2024… This is a substantial difference from the high levels of loadshedding seen in 2023 and is mainly driven by improved thermal power station performance.”
Although the amount of loadshedding has decreased, electricity tariffs for consumers are rising significantly. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) recently approved a tariff hike application by Eskom for 12.6% to start on 1 April 2025, for the financial year 2025/2026.
“While it helps Eskom’s finances, this may be a tough blow for consumers that already saw increases of 18% and 13%, respectively, in the last two years.”
The country issued contingency plans to balance electricity supply and demand amid blackouts In 2024, the report said.
“Egypt continued to struggle with balancing electricity supply and demand amid recurring blackouts.
“Electricity consumption rose by 1.6% y-o-y, driven by population growth, economic expansion and an increasing need for space cooling. While demand for fossil fuels remained stable, renewable power production expanded by almost 5%.”
For the 2025-2027 outlook period, the IEA said that total electricity consumption is expected to grow by just under 3% per year, supported by the continued expansion of renewable sources at an average annual 7.1%.
However, Egypt faces the challenge of declining domestic gas production, particularly from the Zohr gas field, which resulted in the country becoming a net importer of LNG in 2024.
Electricity demand in Algeria is estimated to have grown by 5.4% in 2024 and is forecast to grow by 5.2% on average annually to 2027.
Natural gas remains the predominant source of power generation in the major gas producing country with a 99% share, while renewables contribute around 1%.
The report said that Algeria will need to rapidly expand renewable deployment to ensure they reach their capacity targets.
“Having increased by 13% in 2024, we forecast solar PV generation to grow on average around 22% annually out to 2027.”
Rapid deployment of solar PV and wind have contributed to renewables making up a larger share of power generation in the North African country.
Morocco’s electricity consumption rose by almost 3% in 2024 and is expected to continue at this rate over the forecast period.
While the share of electricity generation from renewables grew to 24% in 2024, coal-fired power remains Morocco’s primary source, with a share of 60% in total electricity supply.
However, coal-fired output is expected to continue declining over the forecast period by an average of 2.5% annually, with its share in electricity generation easing to almost 50% in 2027.
“As Morocco focuses on diversifying generation and integrating renewables, grid flexibility and battery technology have become central to the country’s energy policy.”
An estimated 70% of Nigerians had access to electricity in 2023, up from 50% a decade ago.
But the gap between rural and urban areas remains stark: nearly 95% of residents in cities have access to electricity, compared to only 40% in rural areas.
Electricity demand declined by around 6% in 2024, but we forecast that it will increase on average by more than 5% annually between 2025 and 2027.
Following the start of the Zungeru hydroelectric plant in April 2024, Nigeria now counts 28 grid-connected power plants, which increased the country’s total installed capacity to 14 GW, compared to 12.6 GW in 2023.
“However, this growth in installed capacity did not suffice to compensate for the decrease of available capacity. In the first half of 2024, the average daily available capacity was 4.14 GW, slightly lower than the 4.54 GW recorded in 2023.”
According to IEA analysis, Kenya is on track to achieve its Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) of universal access to electricity by 2030, with the access rate reaching 79% in 2023.
Improvements can be attributed to the Last Mile Connectivity Project (LMCP), aimed at speeding up the electrification efforts, which has connected almost 750,000 households since its launch in 2015.
Further, from 2022 to 2024, Kenya increased its power distribution lines by 2,600 km, representing 3.2% growth.
“Electricity demand in Kenya rose by an estimated 3.2% annually from 2018-2024, and we forecast an annual increase of 6.5% during 2025-2027. We anticipate Kenya to continue to see strong growth in renewables, rising annually by 6% in the next three years.”
Access to electricity in Senegal has steadily improved over recent years, though challenges remain.
As of 2023, an estimated 82% of the population had access, up from 61% in 2013. Urban areas continue to see higher connectivity rates, with nearly all residents in cities having access, compared to just 62% in rural regions.
Electricity demand grew by an estimated 10% in 2024 and is forecast to average 8.6% annually in 2025-2027.
The report said that globally electricity consumption is expected to increase at the fastest pace in years over the 2025-2027 forecast period of the report.
This will be fuelled by growing industrial production, rising use of air conditioning, accelerating electrification and the expansion of data centres worldwide.
Global electricity demand rose by 4.3% in 2024 and is forecast to continue to grow at close to 4% out to 2027.
Over the next three years, global electricity consumption is forecast to rise by an unprecedented 3,500TWh.
“The acceleration of global electricity demand highlights the significant changes taking place in energy systems around the world and the approach of a new Age of Electricity.
“But it also presents evolving challenges for governments in ensuring secure, affordable and sustainable electricity supply,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori.
Contact Us
VUKA is the trusted media partner to key professionals, policy makers, suppliers and
manufacturers. We provide unparalleled opportunities for industry-wide connection.