This is compared to more than 100 countries that have policies in place for the solar PV and onshore wind sectors.
The technical potential of geothermal would be more than enough to meet all electricity and heat demand in Africa, China, Europe, Southeast Asia and the US, says The Future of Geothermal Energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on 13 December.
The first successful generation of electricity from geothermal energy took place in Italy in 1904, followed in 1913 by the development of the first commercial geothermal power plant, with its 250-kilowatt (kW) capacity powering the railway system and villages in the area.
Around 30 other countries have since developed geothermal power production, with annual worldwide generation almost doubling in the past two decades to just below 100 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2023 – 0.3% of total global electricity generation and just above 1% of global renewable electricity supply.
A typical geothermal power plant can produce five to six times more energy than a solar PV plant with similar installed capacity
In 2023, the US, Indonesia, Türkiye, the Philippines and New Zealand together accounted for two-thirds of global geothermal electricity generation, with Iceland, Italy, Kenya, Mexico and Japan contributing another 25%.
The report further notes that while its share in total electricity generation is marginal in most regions, geothermal plays a major role in the power systems of Kenya, Iceland, El Salvador, New Zealand, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, where its contribution exceeds 10% of total electricity supply.
Kenya is looking to become the regional geothermal expert. The Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) recently reported that they are making strides in their geoscientific studies to assess the geothermal potential in three prospective regions of Eswatini.
This follows a KSh250 million (around $2m) contract signed earlier this year between KenGen and the state-owned Eswatini Electricity Company (EEC).
KenGen reported recently that the studies, meant to establish the feasibility of developing a geothermal power plant, “are now well underway, with completion expected in the next few months.”
KenGen’s experience and expertise in geothermal drilling, honed at Kenya’s Olkaria geothermal fields and in successful projects in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Tanzania, played a strategic role in securing the Eswatini contract.
Kenya is to use its geothermal energy expertise to assist its East African neighbour, Malawi, in setting up projects in the sector.
Africa is rich in geothermal resources, particularly in the East African Rift Valley. This region offers vast potential for geothermal energy development.
Currently, Kenya is Africa’s largest geothermal energy producer, with 891.8MW installed as of 2023.
Globally, geothermal power capacity increased almost 40% over the past decade to nearly 15GW in 2023.
During this period, Türkiye, Indonesia and Kenya accomplished the largest developments, accounting for over three-quarters of new capacity additions.
“Despite recent growth from emerging markets and developing economies, the United States still has the largest installed geothermal power capacity worldwide, built mostly between 1980 and 1995,” the report said.
Geothermal power plant utilisation hours, or capacity factors, are relatively high compared with those of other renewable energy sources.
In the past decade, the global geothermal fleet’s capacity factor averaged 75-80%, with national averages for certain years exceeding 90% in countries such as New Zealand, Iceland, Italy and Ethiopia.
The report says that a typical geothermal power plant can produce five to six times more energy than a solar PV plant with similar installed capacity (typically with a 10-15% capacity factor).
“Coal and combined-cycle natural gas power plants can reach similar capacity factors as geothermal facilities, but their global average utilisation rates are lower (around 60% and 50% respectively), as some plants adapt their output to daily (or seasonal) demand profiles and variable renewable power generation.
“Overall, geothermal power plants can provide dispatchable renewable electricity that can help integrate variable solar PV and wind.”
The report highlights that advances in technology are opening new horizons for geothermal, “promising to make it an attractive option for countries and companies all around the world.”
These techniques include horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing honed through oil and gas developments in North America.
“If geothermal can follow in the footsteps of innovation success stories such as solar PV, wind, EVs and batteries, it can become a cornerstone of tomorrow’s electricity and heat systems as a dispatchable and clean source of energy.
“For the moment, geothermal meets less than 1% of global energy demand and its use is concentrated in a few countries with easily accessible and high-quality resources, including the United States, Iceland, Indonesia, Türkiye, Kenya and Italy. With continued technology improvements and reductions in project costs, geothermal could meet up to 15% of global electricity demand growth to 2050.
“This would mean the cost-effective deployment of as much as 800 GW of geothermal power capacity worldwide, producing almost 6,000 terawatt-hours per year, equivalent to the current electricity demand today of the United States and India combined.”
The IEA report describes geothermal energy as a versatile, clean and secure energy source.
It says geothermal energy can provide around-the-clock electricity generation, heat production, and storage.
“As the energy source is continuous, geothermal power plants can operate at their maximum capacity throughout the day and year.
“On average, global geothermal capacity had a utilisation rate over 75% in 2023, compared with less than 30% for wind power and less than 15% for solar PV. In addition, geothermal power plants can operate flexibly in ways that contribute to the stability of electricity grids, ensuring demand can be met at all times and supporting the integration of variable renewables such as solar PV and wind.”
The report says the full technical potential of next-generation geothermal systems to generate electricity is second only to solar PV among renewable technologies and sufficient to meet global electricity demand 140 times over.
“This is a key finding of first-of-a-kind analysis of geothermal potential conducted for this report in collaboration with Project InnerSpace.
“Geothermal energy potential increases as developers access higher heat resources at greater depths.
“New drilling technologies exploring resources at depths beyond 3km open potential for geothermal in nearly all countries in the world. Using thermal resources at depths below 8km can deliver almost 600 TW of geothermal capacity with an operating lifespan of 25 years. Geothermal can also provide a continuous source of low- and medium temperature heat for use in buildings, industry and district heating.”
Geothermal holds particular promise in markets with rapidly rising electricity demand by complementing output from other low-emissions technologies such as renewables and nuclear power while also bolstering energy security, says the report.
Access the IEA’s The Future of Geothermal Energy report
https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-geothermal-energywww.esi-africa.com/tag/KenGen/
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